Summary
Florida Amendment 4, the Right to Abortion Initiative, would add to the state’s constitution that “no law shall prohibit, penalize, delay, or restrict abortion before viability or when necessary to protect the patient’s health, as determined by the patient’s healthcare provider.”
Abortion in Florida is currently banned after six weeks of pregnancy, a law which took effect on May 1, 2024.
A 60% supermajority is required to vote yes for the amendment to pass.
Fiscal Impact
The financial impact statement for Amendment 4 drafted by state officials, and at the time of this writing the subject of ongoing litigation, classifies the impact of the proposed measure as “indeterminate.” Sources of uncertainty include whether the state will pay for abortions with state funds in programs like Medicaid, which itself will likely be the source of more litigation “that will negatively impact the state budget.” The document concludes, more generally:
An increase in abortions may negatively affect the growth of state and local revenues over time. Because the fiscal impact of increased abortions on state and local revenues and costs cannot be estimated with precision, the total impact of the proposed amendment is indeterminate.
In court, Floridians Protecting Freedom, one of the groups campaigning for passage of the amendment, alleges the financial impact statement is overly politicized, while Governor Ron DeSantis and his appointees have defended the document.
Proponents’ Arguments
Proponents emphasize that the amendment would allow individuals and their doctors to make decisions about their healthcare regarding pregnancy without interference from politicians. They also point out that many women with problem pregnancies are facing limited medical options and suffering due to the current restriction on ending a medically fraught pregnancy. They argue the amendment is needed to expand abortion rights for Floridians relative to the recent status quo and afford the extra layer of protection granted by the state constitution. Democratic elected officials tend to support the amendment, and as is customary in Florida, these include national as well as state figures.
In late April, President Joe Biden warned: “Next week one of the nation’s most extreme anti-abortion laws is going to take effect here in Florida. It criminalizes reproductive healthcare before a woman even knows that they are pregnant.” The president urged Floridians to vote in favor of the amendment.
Florida Senate Minority Leader Lauren Book (D-Broward) emphasized the role the state’s proposed amendment played in a national struggle, saying,
“The fight for freedom has never been more critical. Despite the fact that abortion is no longer a partisan issue for Americans, elected Republicans across the U.S. are working to take away access to women’s healthcare. We must not back down!”
Opponents’ Arguments
Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has criticized the proposed amendment as “radical,” and multiple Florida pro-life groups have extensively expanded upon this theme. Florida Voters Against Extremism, the group leading the “vote no” campaign, said of the one-sentence amendment:
Amendment 4 pretends to ‘just bring things back to how they were with Roe vs. Wade‘– but it actually goes much further – allowing for abortion throughout all 9 months of pregnancy with no protections for the unborn baby. Unlike other Amendments, Amendment 4 provides ZERO definitions of key words like ‘government interference’, ‘viability’, ‘health care provider’, ‘patient’s health’ – so voters won’t even know what they’re voting on. This creates huge loopholes that will result in years of litigation and legal uncertainty. … Amendment 4 gives abortion clinics a rubber stamp to approve late-term, third trimester abortions. … Amendment 4 would make abortion the only medical procedure that minors could undergo without parental consent.
Discussion
Many ballot initiatives require the informed voter to familiarize themselves with details of fiscal policy and regulation that are not usually at the forefront of political debate, and on which voters may not have strong opinions when walking into the voting booth. Florida’s Right to Abortion Initiative is just the opposite. Most voters nationwide already have pro-choice or pro-life views–often firmly held–and Floridians will vote on the measure according to those views.
The outcome of the vote will have significant consequences for current Florida law. If 60% or more Floridians vote “yes,” abortion in Florida would be legal until viability, generally taken to be about 24 weeks. Florida’s current law bans abortion except to save the life of the mother after six weeks. (The amendment would not impact previous language in the state constitution that allows the legislature to pass a law requiring parents of most minors to be informed before abortions.)
Much of the attention of elected and other government officials has been on the court battle over the financial impact statement. Meanwhile, many pro-life groups in the state have adopted messaging claiming that the amendment is more radical than the regime similar to Roe it intends to restore.
The claims about legal loopholes made by amendment opponents are vague and in part untrue since the language of the initiative does limit abortions to before viability. They are not wrong, however, that approving this amendment will lead to a lot of future litigation since a large and high-publicity state like Florida will be a magnet for litigation for pro-choice and pro-life groups in any event.