Reason Foundation

Recent Research and Commentary

CA High-Speed Rail and Positive Train Control in the News

May 18, 2012, 4:30pm

Baruch Feigenbaum

During the past few weeks, High-Speed Rail (HSR) and Positive Train Control (PTC) have both been in the news . U.S. Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood warned California lawmakers Thursday not to wait until fall for a vote on high-speed rail, urging its approval in a budget vote next month. California should decline the federal grant and use state money for something more realistic. Meanwhile the Federal Railroad Administration (FRA) has modified its rule on positive train control; unfortunately the changes are minor in nature. Congress needs to delay PTC implementation until the benefits outweigh the costs.

Polling Metro Denver Voters' Support of Tax Hikes for Public Transit

May 18, 2012, 12:09pm

Harris Kenny

A reader recently sent me a poll conducted by Ciruli Associates, a Colorado-based research and consulting firm, which sheds light on metro Denver voters' attitudes towards tax hikes for FasTracks. Most Colorado transportation observers recognize that the relevant question is not if the Regional Transportation District (RTD) will seek voter approval for another transit-dedicated tax hike, but when?

Senate Transportation Bill Uses Creative Math

May 17, 2012, 10:07am

Baruch Feigenbaum

It has been three months since the Senate passed its Transportation bill, MAP-21. Unfortunately, the more transportation analysts research the bill, the more non-transportation spending they find. The conference committee needs to reduce the non-transportation spending from both the Senate bill and the House proposal.

Surface Transportation Innovations #103

Bingaman anti-PPP battle continues | Fresh thinking on federal role in goods movement | California high-speed rail under fire again | Revisiting housing plus transportation costs | Natural gas for trucks? Maybe | Upcoming Conferences | News Notes | Quotab

May 15, 2012

In this Issue:

• Bingaman anti-PPP battle continues
• Fresh thinking on federal role in goods movement
• California high-speed rail under fire again
• Revisiting housing plus transportation costs
• Natural gas for trucks? Maybe
• Upcoming Conferences
• News Notes
• Quotable Quotes

 

Washington Outer Beltway and I-495 BRT Have Benefits

May 11, 2012, 8:27am

Baruch Feigenbaum

A recent article pro-outer beltway article hit a nerve in the DC community. While building new highways is not always the solution, not ever building new highways is no better. Area planners should consider building a highway in western Montgomery and western Fairfax counties with limited exits and constructing BRT transit along the I-495 corridor.

Tampa to Orlando High-Speed Rail Could Cost $3 Billion More Than Expected

Comparisons to California and other rail projects suggest rail system will cost Florida taxpayers much more than $280 million

January 6, 2011

If the proposed Tampa to Orlando high-speed rail line goes over budget or fails to meet ridership expectations Florida taxpayers could get stuck with a bill of up to $3 billion, according to a new Reason Foundation report.

Long-standing research shows costs are underestimated on nine out of every 10 large passenger rail transportation projects, with cost overruns averaging 45 percent higher than anticipated. If the Tampa-Orlando rail line were to go over budget by 45 percent Florida taxpayers would be on the hook for $1.2 billion more than the $280 million currently forecast.

The Reason Foundation warns that Florida may be miscalculating the costs of high-speed rail by even more than that. Consider that the expected cost of building the first segment of California’s high-speed rail line is 111 percent higher than Florida’s - $67.8 million per mile compared to $32.1 million per mile in Florida. The costs of the Tampa to Orlando system would be $3 billion more than advertised using California’s estimated cost per mile.

The Reason study also flags concerns about ridership numbers. The Florida project is predicted to carry 2.4 million riders annually, which is two-thirds the ridership on the existing Amtrak Acela Express service. The Acela trains serve several big metropolitan areas, including New York, Washington, DC, Boston, Philadelphia, and Baltimore. The population of those cities is approximately eight times the population of the Tampa and Orlando metropolitan areas.

The California High-Speed Rail Proposal: A Due Diligence Report

Policy Study 370

September 1, 2008

Joseph Vranich, Wendell Cox, Adrian Moore

With the high costs of building in California and the history of cost overruns on rail projects, the final price tag for the complete high-speed rail system will actually be $65 to $81 billion, according to the Reason Foundation report.

And while the Rail Authority forecasts between 65 and 96 million intercity riders by 2030, the due diligence report finds these projections are dramatically inflated. After compiling numerous ridership studies previously conducted for California rail systems, the study demonstrates the state can expect 23 million to 31 million riders a year in 2030.

Any failure to meet the Rail Authority's lofty ridership projections would force ticket-price increases, further cutting ridership, or require taxpayer subsidies to cover the financial shortfall, adding to future budget deficits. The due diligence report finds "the San Francisco-Los Angeles line alone by 2030 would suffer annual financial losses of up to $4.17 billion."

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