Out of Control Policy Blog

Five Best and Worst States for Housing in 2011

Last week, MarketWatch listed the top five states expected to recover from the nationwide housing slump the fastest and slowest.

Five best housing states

  1. North Dakota: lowest mortgage delinquency rate (0.9%) and highest price gain since 2005 (7.2%); however unemployment is relatively high (7.5%) compared to South Dakota
  2. South Dakota: second-lowest mortgage delinquency rate (1.5%) and one of only four states to see a price gain (0.5%) since 2005, plus unemployment is very low (3.7%)
  3. Iowa: low mortgage delinquency rate (2.2%) and minimal price decline (0.4%) since 2005, plus its unemployment rate (6.8%) is below the national average
  4. Nebraska: low mortgage delinquency rate (2.0%) and second-lowest unemployment rate (4.4%) in the nation, plus prices only had a modest decline (3.5%) since 2005
  5. Oklahoma: low mortgage delinquency rate (2.9%) and minimal price decline (2.3%) since 2005, plus a relatively low unemployment rate (6.9%) compared to the national average

MarketWatch writes that there is a patter here: the first states to recover are generally in the middle of the country: "Add Kansas, Texas, Louisiana and Arkansas to that bunch. Other states that fall in to the the early-recovery category include Vermont, Hawaii, Montana, Wyoming, New Mexico, Colorado and New Hampshire."

Five worst housing states

  1. Nevada: highest mortgage delinquency rate (8.3%), highest unemployment rate (14.4%), and biggest price decline (56.4%) since 2005
  2. Michigan: high mortgage delinquency rate (5.1%), second-highest unemployment rate (13.1%), and a serious price decline (31.7%) since 2005—but on the upside, the University of Michigan has a great new football coach in Brady Hoke
  3. California: tied for second-highest mortgage delinquency rate (6.0%), third-worst unemployment rate (12.4%), and a very serious price decline (40.8%) since 2005
  4. Florida: tied for second-highest mortgage delinquency rate (6.0%), unemployment rate (11.7%) above the national average, and a severe price decline (46.9%) since 2005
  5. Rhode Island: relatively modest mortgage delinquency rate (4.9%) is offset by a home price decline (25.6%) above the national average and the fourth highest unemployment rate (11.7%) in the country
See here for MarketWatch's full analysis.


Anthony Randazzo is Director of Economic Research


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