Out of Control Policy Blog

Climate uncertainty and thinking about the worst case

Arnold Kling wrote on TCS Daily "'Just-in-Case': How to Think About Uncertainty and Global Warming/"

Obviously, we have nothing to worry about if the models are too pessimistic. If it turns out that over the next decade global temperatures edge down, or rise more slowly than the models predict, then we will be relieved.

The troublesome possibility is that the models are not pessimistic enough. In fact, Weitzman would argue, and I concur, that the case for doing something today about global warming rests on the fear of the scenario of accelerated near-term climate change -- increases in temperature at a rate that is on the high end of the range being forecast by climate models.

Adrian Moore is Vice President, Policy


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