Projecting the funded ratios of state-managed pension plans

Many public pension plans wrapped up their 2022 fiscal years on June 30, 2022. Compared to 2021’s strong investment returns for public pension systems, when the median public pension plan’s investment return was around 27%, there will be a lot less to celebrate this year as nearly every asset class saw declines in 2022. 

The interactive map below shows the funded ratios for state-managed public pension systems from 2001 to 2022. A funded ratio is calculated by dividing the value of a pension plan’s assets by the projected amount needed to cover the retirement benefits already promised to workers. The funded ratio values for 2022 are projections based on a -6% investment return. 

Year-to-year changes in investment returns and funded ratios tend to grab attention, but longer-range trends give a better perspective of the overall health of public pension systems.

In 2001, only one state, West Virginia, had an aggregated funded ratio of less than 60%. By the end of 2021, four states—Illinois, Kentucky, New Jersey, and Connecticut—had aggregate funded ratios below 60%.

If investment returns are -6% or worse in the 2022 fiscal year, Reason Foundation’s analysis shows South Carolina would be the fifth state with a funded ratio below 60%. 

Over the same period, 2001 to 2021, the number of states with state-managed pensions with funded ratios above 90% fell from 33 to 20. If all plans return a -6% investment return assumption for 2022, Reason Foundation projects the number of states that have funded levels above 90% would shrink from 20 to six.  The six states with funded levels that would still be above 90% after -6% returns for 2022: Delaware, Nebraska, New York, South Dakota, Washington, and Wisconsin. 

Importantly, the -6% investment return assumption for the 2022 fiscal year used in this map may be too optimistic for some public pension plans. The S&P 500 lost 12% of its value over the 2022 fiscal year from July 1, 2021, to June 30, 2022. Vanguard’s VBIAX, which mimics a typical 60/40 stock-bond portfolio, was down 15% for the fiscal 2022 year ending in June 30, 2022. Thus, given the condition of financial markets this year, the public pension plans with fiscal years that ended in June 2022 are likely to report negative returns for the 2022 fiscal year.  

Another useful long-term trend to look at are the unfunded liabilities of state-run pension plans. Whereas a pension system’s funded ratio takes the ratio of assets to liabilities, unfunded liabilities are the actual difference between the pension plan’s assets and liabilities. Unfunded liabilities can be conceptualized as the pension benefits already promised to workers that are not currently funded by the plan. Again, the values for the 2022 unfunded liabilities map are a projection using an investment return of -6%. 

The five states with the largest unfunded liabilities are California, Illinois, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Texas. In fiscal year 2021, the unfunded liabilities of those states totaled $434 billion and would jump to $620 billion in 2022 with a -6% return.  

For more information on the unfunded liabilities and funded ratios of state-run pensions, please visit Reason’s 2022 Public Pension Forecaster.

Notes

ⁱ The state-funded ratios in this map were generated by aggregating (for state-managed plans) the market value of plan assets and actuarially accrued liabilities. Prior to 2002, Montana and North Carolina reported data every two years, therefore for 2001 figures from 2002 are used. Figures for Washington state do not include Plan 1, an older plan that is not as well funded.

ⁱⁱ The discount rate applied to plan liabilities will impact the funded ratio of a plan. Therefore, the map above can be best thought of as a snapshot of state-funded ratios based on plan assumptions by year. Overly optimistic assumptions about a pension plan’s investment returns will result in artificially high-funded states. Conversely, pulling assumptions downward, while prudent, will result in a worse-looking funded ratio over the short term.

ⁱⁱⁱ In addition to projections for fiscal 2022, some public pension plans in 29 states have yet to report their complete fiscal 2021 figures and therefore include a projection estimate for 2021 as well. Thus, 2021 projections were used for at least one plan in the following states: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Georgia, Hawaii, Illinois, Kansas, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, Missouri, Nebraska, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, North Carolina, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Texas, Tennessee, Utah, Virginia, Washington, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming.