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Some Good News On the Economy

Anthony Randazzo
August 3, 2009, 3:25pm

Economic losses slowed in the second quarter of 2010, and it is possible that we are technically already in a recovery period. From The WSJ:

The U.S. economy came out of its tailspin in the second quarter and may be poised to resume growing, even as new signs of economic strain showed up in Europe.

U.S. gross domestic product -- a broad measure of the value of goods and services produced -- contracted at a 1% annual rate last quarter, its slowest pace in a year. That was a marked improvement from the first-quarter contraction of 6.4% and the fourth quarter's 5.4% pullback.

There was also good news coming out of the Federal Reserve from regional reports. From the AP:

The economy is finally showing signs of stabilizing in some regions of the country - especially in parts of the Northeast and Midwest - bolstering hopes of a broader-based recovery this year. A Federal Reserve snapshot of economic conditions issued Wednesday found that most of the Fed's 12 regions indicated either that the recession was easing or that economic activity had "begun to stabilize, albeit at a low level." [...]

Four Fed regions - New York, Cleveland, Kansas City and San Francisco - pointed to "signs of stabilization," the survey said. Two regions - Chicago and St. Louis - reported that the pace of economic declined appeared to be "moderating." Five other regions - Boston, Philadelphia, Richmond, Atlanta and Dallas - described activity as "slow,""subdued" or "weak." Only one region - Minneapolis - indicated that its downward slide in economic activity had worsened. Combined, the assessments of businesses on the front lines of the economy appeared to be brighter than those they provided for the previous Fed report in mid-June.

Yet, even with a market looking to turn up. There is a significant likelihood that we'll have a V-shaped recovery, with a downturn later in 2010 before more stable recovery in 2011. So all good news has a caveat. But a good way to avoid some of that would be to not pass the spending bills in Waxman-Markey or Obamacare.


Anthony Randazzo is Director of Economic Research


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