Out of Control Policy Blog

U.S. Economic Growth: Too Fast, Too Soon?

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis has released preliminary estimates of the U.S. economy's growth in the third quarter of 2009. The BEA reports third quarter growth of 3.5%, a far cry from the negative growth during the second quarter and 6.4 percent drop during the first quarter. The news is good...sort of.

One quarter's estimates are not necessarily a sign of good times. As I point out in this guest blog post for the National Review's blog "The Corner," lots of uncertainties surround the stability of the estimate, whether the spending that drove these growth numbers was "real," and whether these trends are long-term. I conclude:

We need to remember it took the National Bureau of Economic Research 12 months to officially declare that the economy was in recession because the data were so hard to read. It's no different now. So, we will need to wait at least until Fourth Quarter GDP results are in before we can even make reasonable speculations about the economy's health.

The complete numbers and estimates can be found in an excel file at the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Also, my colleague Anthony Randazzo legitimately questions whether we may actually be entering a "lost decade" of variable but stagnant economic growth similar to Japan in the 1990s.

Samuel Staley is Research Fellow

« Anti-Privatization Pacheco Law Continues to… | Main | New Book from Charlie Gasparino… »

Comments to "U.S. Economic Growth: Too Fast, Too Soon?":

links of london Sweetie Bracelets | November 18, 2009, 2:14am | #

Silver Pure pure-silver pieces links of london Earring , including ornaments links of london Earrings , bracelets, and bangle with faceted claret links of london Pendants . For converse disguise effete stones and links of london Pendant . “Elizabeth Galton links of london Silver Chain

abercrombie | November 19, 2009, 1:20am | #

Still, A&F as in other whipsawed industries, a few survivors stand to abercrombie benefit from the widespread pain. To figure out who they are, I analyzed data provided by financial research firm Capital IQ, a unit of Standard & Poor's, to see which publicly owned restaurant companies with at least $250 million in annual sales have gained revenue and market share abercrombie fitch since the recession began near the end of 2007. Then I researched earnings abercrombie & fitch reports and other sources to separate firms with strong inherent growth from those benefiting from mergers, abercrombie Jeans accounting anomalies, or one-time events.

Out of Control Policy Archives