Reason Foundation

Recent Research and Commentary

Can Environmental Advocacy Organizations be Good Stewards of the Environment?

February 5, 2012, 6:28pm

Samuel Staley

The willingness of national environmental groups to foresake six-square miles of pristine desert habitat for what will eventually be a minor advance against climate change is a disturbing indicator of how these organizations may be compromising their role as a defenders of the environment.

Global Warming...Cooling...Or Just Climate Change?

January 29, 2012, 8:24pm

Samuel Staley

New data reported from the Climate Research Center at England's University of East Anglia suggest that the world may in fact be cooling, not warming, and the global temperature has not incresaed since 1997.

Climated Gate(s) and the Ethics of Global Warming Science

December 14, 2011, 3:31pm

Samuel Staley

The so-called "Climate Gate" debacles are more than a public relations fiasco for global warming scholars; they also show the depth to which the science has become politicized.

How the IPCC Reports Mislead the Public, Exaggerate the Negative Impacts of Climate Change and Ignore the Benefits of Economic Growth

Study finds climate change panel ignores its own findings and pushes plans that will prolong poverty for developing nations

December 7, 2011

Indur M. Goklany, Julian Morris

The IPCC’s “impacts” assessments systematically overestimate the negative impact of global warming, while underestimating the positive impact. Moreover, in these “impacts” assessments, global warming is not expected for the most part to create new problems; rather, it is expected to exacerbate some existing problems of poverty (in particular, hunger, disease, extreme events), while relieving others (such as habitat loss and water shortages in some places).

The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) deems poor countries to be at greater risk from global warming (GW) than rich countries because they are less able to mobilize the resources required to use technologies needed to cope with the impact of GW. That is, their “adaptive capacity” is low.

The IPCC also claims that GW will exacerbate many problems—such as malaria and other vector-borne diseases, hunger, water shortages, vulnerability to extreme weather events and flooding—that the poor currently face and with which they have difficulty coping. Yet aren’t these both basically the same thing and both caused by an underlying lack of economic development?

Building on the notion that the current adaptive capacity of poor countries is low, the IPCC, among others, claims that global warming could also hinder their sustainable development. Others argue that the impact of global warming could overwhelm weak or poor governments, leading to economic and political instability, which, in turn, could breed terrorism and conflict, and precipitate mass migration to richer countries.

This paper seeks to assess whether these assertions are justified. It begins with a discussion that sheds light on the main factors that affect the trends in climate-sensitive indicators of human wellbeing. The discussion recognizes the role of fossil fuels in powering economic and technological development.

Next, it examines the notion—implicit in the view that poor countries will be swamped by the future impact of GW—that their adaptive capacity will remain low in the future. It specifically examines whether this view is justified in light of the economic assumptions built into the IPCC scenarios.

These economic assumptions are among the primary drivers of the IPCC’s climate change projections, which are then used to estimate the likely future impact (including specific damages) from GW. They are, thus, fundamental to estimates of the magnitude and direction of the future impact of GW. The paper then considers the proposition that while higher rates of economic development would lead to greater climate-related impact from GW, it would also result in higher adaptive capacity. This raises the question as to whether or not the economic development and associated technological change assumed by the IPCC scenarios will increase the damage from GW faster than the increases in adaptive capacity and, consequently, hinder sustainable development. Likewise, it raises the question as to whether insufficient economic and technological development would hinder the ability to cope with future GW.

The answers to these questions are crucial in determining which policy is best suited to addressing GW resulting from human activity. Finally, based on the foregoing analysis, the paper outlines policies to help advance human wellbeing in poor countries while enhancing their ability to cope with GW.

Impacts of Transportation Policies on Greenhouse Gas Emissions in U.S. Regions

Comparing the cost and effectiveness transportation-related policies aimed at reducing CO2 emissions

November 30, 2011

David T. Hartgen, M. Gregory Fields, Adrian Moore

This report compares the cost and effectiveness of improved fuel economy, transportation system improvements and shifts in travel behavior on the reduction of man-made CO2 emissions in urban areas. We study in detail 48 major U.S. regions containing 41% of the U.S. population, 60% of transit use and 90% of congestion delay. This report quantifies how much CO2 cars, light trucks and commercial trucks currently emit (base year 2005) in each region, how much CO2 would have increased with prior CAFE standards, how much the new CAFE standards will reduce, and how much CO2 might be reduced by other commonly suggested policies. These policies include the new fuel economy standards, additional smaller-car sales, signal timing and speed controls, capacity increases, high-occupancy or priced lanes, travel reduction polices, transit use increases, carpooling, telecommuting and walking to work. We then assess the cost versus effectiveness of each policy for each region and recommend detailed regional strategies.

Reducing Greenhouse Gas Emissions From Automobiles

Examining technological and compact development strategies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions

November 29, 2011

Wendell Cox, Adrian Moore

Federal, state and local governments are considering or have implemented policies that seek to reduce human emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs). 

This study seeks to assess the relative merits of specific policies intended to reduce GHGs from automobiles. (It does not consider whether or not reductions in GHGs are actually desirable.) Current policies and proposals for reducing GHGs from autos would require implementation of strong land use restrictions (compact development). Technological alternatives for reducing GHG emissions have received considerably less attention. 

We estimated the costs of a range of such policies, beginning with government documents and reports prepared in cooperation with organizations advocating behavioral policies. Behavioral strategy costs and the costs of technological strategies were evaluated against the upper limit on acceptable costs for GHG emissions reductions as estimated by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (This upper limit, $50/ton of carbon dioxide equivalent in 2020–2030, is used because of its source, not because we endorse that value). 

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