Reason Foundation

Recent Research and Commentary

Give Managed Lane Conversions Time

May 16, 2013, 9:34am

Baruch Feigenbaum

Los Angeles recently converted portions of its I-10 and I-110 HOV lanes to HOT lanes. In the months after the conversions, travel times have decreased for transit vehicles and cars in the HOT lanes but increased for traffic in the general-purpose lanes. In an Op-Ed article for the Los Angeles Daily News I explained that these are part of the growing pains for the Managed Lanes. Users need to give the lanes up to a year to realize the maximum benefits of the conversion.

Surface Transportation Newsletter #115

Access to jobs via auto, Inside the transit "black box," and More

May 10, 2013

Robert Poole

In this issue:

• Access to jobs via auto
• Inside the transit "black box"
• Separating managed lanes from GP lanes
• Will Congress address WRDA's problems?
• Major toll projects proliferate
• News Notes
• Quotable Quotes

 

Surface Transportation Newsletter #114

Conflicting reports on California high-speed rail, rethinking the federal role

April 17, 2013

Robert Poole

New Year, Same Old Transportation Budget from the White House

April 12, 2013, 6:00am

Baruch Feigenbaum

Despite his promises to take transportation seriously the White House recently released FY 2014 budget continues to make wild assessments and treat transportation as an unimportant issue. This year the President proposes to increase funding from the Highway Trust Fund $6.4 billion to pay for rail, $50 billion in stimulus funding and $10 million to start a national infrastructure bank. White House budgets' are political documents, but this transportation proposal takes it to a new level.

The GAO Didn't Endorse the California High-Speed Rail Project

GAO says "there is increased risk of such things as cost overruns, missed deadlines, and unmet performance targets"

April 11, 2013

Wendell Cox, Joseph Vranich

The Government Accountability Office (GAO) recently issued its congressionally-requested report on the California high-speed rail project. The rail project’s promoters have gone out of their way to characterize the GAO analysis as giving the California plan a "clean bill of health and the California High-Speed Rail Authority (CHSRA) claims GAO gave the project "high marks." 

The GAO report, California High-Speed Passenger Rail: Project Estimates Could Be Improved to Better Inform Future Decisions, however, does not represent the endorsement suggested by proponents. 

Tampa to Orlando High-Speed Rail Could Cost $3 Billion More Than Expected

Comparisons to California and other rail projects suggest rail system will cost Florida taxpayers much more than $280 million

January 6, 2011

If the proposed Tampa to Orlando high-speed rail line goes over budget or fails to meet ridership expectations Florida taxpayers could get stuck with a bill of up to $3 billion, according to a new Reason Foundation report.

Long-standing research shows costs are underestimated on nine out of every 10 large passenger rail transportation projects, with cost overruns averaging 45 percent higher than anticipated. If the Tampa-Orlando rail line were to go over budget by 45 percent Florida taxpayers would be on the hook for $1.2 billion more than the $280 million currently forecast.

The Reason Foundation warns that Florida may be miscalculating the costs of high-speed rail by even more than that. Consider that the expected cost of building the first segment of California’s high-speed rail line is 111 percent higher than Florida’s - $67.8 million per mile compared to $32.1 million per mile in Florida. The costs of the Tampa to Orlando system would be $3 billion more than advertised using California’s estimated cost per mile.

The Reason study also flags concerns about ridership numbers. The Florida project is predicted to carry 2.4 million riders annually, which is two-thirds the ridership on the existing Amtrak Acela Express service. The Acela trains serve several big metropolitan areas, including New York, Washington, DC, Boston, Philadelphia, and Baltimore. The population of those cities is approximately eight times the population of the Tampa and Orlando metropolitan areas.

The California High-Speed Rail Proposal: A Due Diligence Report

Policy Study 370

September 1, 2008

Joseph Vranich, Wendell Cox, Adrian Moore

With the high costs of building in California and the history of cost overruns on rail projects, the final price tag for the complete high-speed rail system will actually be $65 to $81 billion, according to the Reason Foundation report.

And while the Rail Authority forecasts between 65 and 96 million intercity riders by 2030, the due diligence report finds these projections are dramatically inflated. After compiling numerous ridership studies previously conducted for California rail systems, the study demonstrates the state can expect 23 million to 31 million riders a year in 2030.

Any failure to meet the Rail Authority's lofty ridership projections would force ticket-price increases, further cutting ridership, or require taxpayer subsidies to cover the financial shortfall, adding to future budget deficits. The due diligence report finds "the San Francisco-Los Angeles line alone by 2030 would suffer annual financial losses of up to $4.17 billion."

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