Reason Foundation

Recent Research and Commentary

High-Speed Rail is Too Costly

With current budget challenges, High-Speed Rail is a luxury that the U.S. cannot afford

June 14, 2013

Baruch Feigenbaum

Discussions are resuming in the Southeast about a high-speed rail (HSR) corridor. Unfortunately, the evidence suggests that high-speed rail’s limited success in Europe and Asia is not transferable to the U.S. Most high-speed rail lines require large government subsidies. Additionally, HSR fails to provide environmental, economic development, or mobility benefits. 

 

Surface Transportation Newsletter #116

VMT growth and the Millennials, Whither autonomous vehicles?, I-5 bridge collapse highlights flawed system

June 12, 2013

Robert Poole

 

In this issue:

• VMT growth and the Millennials
• Whither autonomous vehicles?
• I-5 bridge collapse highlights flawed system
• Americans' highway fee preferences
• Bogus Chinatown bus study
• Upcoming Conferences
• News Notes
• Quotable Quotes

 

High-Speed Rail is a Luxury the U.S. Cannot Afford

June 11, 2013, 8:30am

Baruch Feigenbaum

In an Op-Ed in today's Atlanta Journal Constitution I detail why, based on a study of high-speed rail (HSR) in Europe and Asia, HSR is a luxury the U.S. cannot afford. Even with generous subsidies traveling by HSR is more expensive than flying for 12 of the 23 most popular routes in the world. HSR does not have the environmental or economic benefits its advocates claim.

High-Speed Rail in Europe and Asia: Lessons for the United States

The evidence suggests that high-speed rail’s limited success in Europe and Asia is not transferrable to the U.S.

May 30, 2013

Baruch Feigenbaum

The prospect of building a high-speed rail network in the U.S. has received a great deal of attention. However, different patterns of passenger travel, goods movement, car ownership and spatial structure mean that even the limited success high-speed rail has had in Europe and Asia will be difficult to replicate here. As a result, high-speed rail is best regarded as a luxury this country cannot afford. For far less money, the U.S. could create a world-class highway and aviation system with first-rate bus and airplane service. Now is not the time to experiment with more expensive modes of transportation.

Slow Start to L.A.'s Toll Lanes Certain to Gain Speed

Given time optional lanes reduce congestion and provide travel options

May 20, 2013

Baruch Feigenbaum

The new toll lanes on I-10 and I-110 opened with complaints and slower traffic in the general purpose lanes. While frustrating this is not unusual for these type of lane conversions. It takes up to a year for travelers to experience the maximum benefits. Given time the HOT lanes will provide drivers a reliable travel time and a new option.

Tampa to Orlando High-Speed Rail Could Cost $3 Billion More Than Expected

Comparisons to California and other rail projects suggest rail system will cost Florida taxpayers much more than $280 million

January 6, 2011

If the proposed Tampa to Orlando high-speed rail line goes over budget or fails to meet ridership expectations Florida taxpayers could get stuck with a bill of up to $3 billion, according to a new Reason Foundation report.

Long-standing research shows costs are underestimated on nine out of every 10 large passenger rail transportation projects, with cost overruns averaging 45 percent higher than anticipated. If the Tampa-Orlando rail line were to go over budget by 45 percent Florida taxpayers would be on the hook for $1.2 billion more than the $280 million currently forecast.

The Reason Foundation warns that Florida may be miscalculating the costs of high-speed rail by even more than that. Consider that the expected cost of building the first segment of California’s high-speed rail line is 111 percent higher than Florida’s - $67.8 million per mile compared to $32.1 million per mile in Florida. The costs of the Tampa to Orlando system would be $3 billion more than advertised using California’s estimated cost per mile.

The Reason study also flags concerns about ridership numbers. The Florida project is predicted to carry 2.4 million riders annually, which is two-thirds the ridership on the existing Amtrak Acela Express service. The Acela trains serve several big metropolitan areas, including New York, Washington, DC, Boston, Philadelphia, and Baltimore. The population of those cities is approximately eight times the population of the Tampa and Orlando metropolitan areas.

The California High-Speed Rail Proposal: A Due Diligence Report

Policy Study 370

September 1, 2008

Joseph Vranich, Wendell Cox, Adrian Moore

With the high costs of building in California and the history of cost overruns on rail projects, the final price tag for the complete high-speed rail system will actually be $65 to $81 billion, according to the Reason Foundation report.

And while the Rail Authority forecasts between 65 and 96 million intercity riders by 2030, the due diligence report finds these projections are dramatically inflated. After compiling numerous ridership studies previously conducted for California rail systems, the study demonstrates the state can expect 23 million to 31 million riders a year in 2030.

Any failure to meet the Rail Authority's lofty ridership projections would force ticket-price increases, further cutting ridership, or require taxpayer subsidies to cover the financial shortfall, adding to future budget deficits. The due diligence report finds "the San Francisco-Los Angeles line alone by 2030 would suffer annual financial losses of up to $4.17 billion."

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